So in the end, with Trump, Kim Jong-un, and Lee Jae-myung in cahoots, …
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작성자 최고관리자 댓글 0건 조회 235회 작성일 25-10-28 23:11본문
So in the end, with Trump, Kim Jong-un, and Lee Jae-myung in cahoots, where does that leave South Korea?
Dr. Son, Gi-Woong
President, Korea Institute for Peace and Cooperation
President Trump is tumultuous. He reigns as king of the West, if not the world. History will show whether this will ‘make America great again.’
South Korea is not only a military ally, but also a partner of the United States, which shares the values of freedom, democracy, and human rights and exerts absolute influence on the economy. This relationship must continue at least until unification, and unification itself is impossible without the American support and assistance.
However, the negative impact Trump's maneuvers could have on South Korea is quite serious. It forces us to reflect deeply on the relationship between South Korea and Trump, not between South Korea and the United States.
First, Trump is supporting Kim Jong-un’s ‘two-states’ argument. To be precise, he’s making Korean unification more difficult.
Trump can meet with Kim Jong-un, and he must do so to resolve the issues. However, the content and outcome of the meeting, as well as the significance of the meeting itself and the magnitude of the benefits to both sides, must be carefully compared and evaluated.
Trump met Kim Jong-un three times during his first term: in Singapore (June 2018), Hanoi (February 2019), and Panmunjom (June 2019), garnering unprecedented attention. Trump stormed out of the Hanoi summit, likely celebrating having struck a blow to Kim Jong-un and taught him a crucial lesson. He utilized all these encounters for his own political manipulation.
But in truth, Kim Jong-un was no less a victor. While he failed to achieve the goals of easing sanctions on North Korea and improving North Korea-US relations, Kim Jong-un made a spectacular entrance onto the international political stage as the head of a normal nation, meeting with the world’s most powerful president, the US, three times.
North Koreans have been forced to endure austerity, mobilization, and control since birth, claiming they are up against the world's most powerful nation, the United States, and in the process, the powerful United States has been imprinted into their very bones. They must have been deeply moved and impressed by the sight of Kim Jong-un sitting face to face with the U.S. president three times and competing with him, something neither his grandfather Kim Il-sung nor his father Kim Jong-il could do.
Trump played a crucial role in stabilizing Kim Jong-un’s power. Moon Jae-in’s mediation of the meeting was also remarkable. The foundation for the two-state argument was laid.
Trump must consider the very idea of meeting Kim Jong-un. Will meeting Kim Jong-un benefit him politically domestically? Is it really necessary to be seen alongside Kim Jong-un, given his status as a world leader?
The fact that Trump is eagerly anticipating another meeting with Kim Jong-un is also problematic. Since when has it been normal for a US president to not only reach out to a North Korean dictator but also appear impatient when he can't? Shouldn’t the opposite be the norm?
Nevertheless, Trump will meet Kim Jong-un. He needs the spotlight to find meaning in life, and he needs to create another ‘shorts’ or do something to secure next year’s Nobel Peace Prize. There are reports that he will consider forging various economic ties, including tourism investment, if he meets Kim Jong-un.
I wonder if the principle of “a unified Korean Peninsula that is free and at peace,” agreed upon and announced by former President Biden with the leaders of South Korea and Japan at Camp David on August 18, 2023, truly exists in Trump’s mind.
While his inner workings remain unknown, Trump, eagerly anticipating a meeting with Kim Jong-un, is steeped in the ‘two Koreas on the Korean Peninsula’ policy. He treats and approaches North Korea as a separate nation from South Korea. South Korea is not a constant in Trump's North Korea policy. It's only through his benevolent grace that we occasionally have the opportunity to express our opinions.
Second, Trump makes the dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear program virtually impossible. North Korea's nuclear program cannot be left out of Trump's meeting with Kim Jong-un. It will inevitably be ‘nuclear disarmament negotiations’ based on the recognition of North Korea as a nuclear weapons state, which Kim Jong-un expects and demands.
The reason Kim Jong-un didn’t accept Trump's outstretched hand is because this isn’t guaranteed. Therefore, if Kim Jong-un meets with Trump, that alone means the nuclear dialogue is already proceeding according to Kim’s intentions. He is not the kind of person who would stand as a mere prop in Trump’s political ‘show.’
Even if Trump and Kim Jong-un reach an agreement in principle and do not use the term ‘disarmament negotiations’ in future working-level US-North Korea talks, North Korea will likely insist on it.
If Trump and Kim Jong-un reach a basic agreement, then even if the term ‘disarmament negotiation’ isn’t officially used in the subsequent working-level U.S.–North Korea negotiations, North Korea will certainly claim that’s what they are. The negotiations will likely involve a partial freeze on North Korea's nuclear program and the easing of sanctions. Given Kim Jong-un’s insistence on the complete lifting of sanctions against North Korea, the removal of key sanctions is highly likely.
Naturally, Kim Jong-un would not agree to a detailed roadmap covering the entire process from the current stage to the complete dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear program. Kim Jong-un has openly declared that nuclear dismantlement is ‘unconstitutional’ and violates the Constitution of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
Under normal circumstances, with three years remaining in his term and a loss in the midterm elections next November likely to result in a lame duck presidency, would the grand and ambitious long-term strategy of North Korea’s denuclearization truly resonate with Trump? As seen in the peace negotiations in the Middle East and Europe, isn’t Trump’s mind likely preoccupied solely with calculating political gains — even if the results are only temporary or short-term?
In the end, whether he intends to or not, Trump is bolstering President Lee Jae-myung’s position. Lee and his administration have argued that the South and the North are, in effect, two separate states and that this reality must be accepted, that North Korea is already a nuclear-armed state capable of striking the U.S. mainland, and that before it produces even more nuclear weapons, the pace of its buildup must somehow be curbed. Trump now appears to be putting into practice — ahead of them — the very approach they have been advocating.
Even though Trump’s maneuvers are independent of Lee Jae-myung and his government, Lee Jae-myung and his government’s North Korea policy could gain momentum and be pushed forward thanks to Trump. This could bring a sense of elation to Kim Jong-un.
For South Korea, which must strive for unification and denuclearization of North Korea, Trump’s maneuvers are negative. However, for Lee Jae-myung and his government, who long for coexistence, not unification, and for recognition and dialogue regarding North Korea’s nuclear program, under the guise of peace, Trump could be a blessing.
Furthermore, Trump’s unilateral economic demands and pressure to change the role of US forces in South Korea in security matters are bolstering the independent path advocated by those who adhered to ‘Juche ideology.’
Dr. Son, Gi-Woong
President, Korea Institute for Peace and Cooperation
President Trump is tumultuous. He reigns as king of the West, if not the world. History will show whether this will ‘make America great again.’
South Korea is not only a military ally, but also a partner of the United States, which shares the values of freedom, democracy, and human rights and exerts absolute influence on the economy. This relationship must continue at least until unification, and unification itself is impossible without the American support and assistance.
However, the negative impact Trump's maneuvers could have on South Korea is quite serious. It forces us to reflect deeply on the relationship between South Korea and Trump, not between South Korea and the United States.
First, Trump is supporting Kim Jong-un’s ‘two-states’ argument. To be precise, he’s making Korean unification more difficult.
Trump can meet with Kim Jong-un, and he must do so to resolve the issues. However, the content and outcome of the meeting, as well as the significance of the meeting itself and the magnitude of the benefits to both sides, must be carefully compared and evaluated.
Trump met Kim Jong-un three times during his first term: in Singapore (June 2018), Hanoi (February 2019), and Panmunjom (June 2019), garnering unprecedented attention. Trump stormed out of the Hanoi summit, likely celebrating having struck a blow to Kim Jong-un and taught him a crucial lesson. He utilized all these encounters for his own political manipulation.
But in truth, Kim Jong-un was no less a victor. While he failed to achieve the goals of easing sanctions on North Korea and improving North Korea-US relations, Kim Jong-un made a spectacular entrance onto the international political stage as the head of a normal nation, meeting with the world’s most powerful president, the US, three times.
North Koreans have been forced to endure austerity, mobilization, and control since birth, claiming they are up against the world's most powerful nation, the United States, and in the process, the powerful United States has been imprinted into their very bones. They must have been deeply moved and impressed by the sight of Kim Jong-un sitting face to face with the U.S. president three times and competing with him, something neither his grandfather Kim Il-sung nor his father Kim Jong-il could do.
Trump played a crucial role in stabilizing Kim Jong-un’s power. Moon Jae-in’s mediation of the meeting was also remarkable. The foundation for the two-state argument was laid.
Trump must consider the very idea of meeting Kim Jong-un. Will meeting Kim Jong-un benefit him politically domestically? Is it really necessary to be seen alongside Kim Jong-un, given his status as a world leader?
The fact that Trump is eagerly anticipating another meeting with Kim Jong-un is also problematic. Since when has it been normal for a US president to not only reach out to a North Korean dictator but also appear impatient when he can't? Shouldn’t the opposite be the norm?
Nevertheless, Trump will meet Kim Jong-un. He needs the spotlight to find meaning in life, and he needs to create another ‘shorts’ or do something to secure next year’s Nobel Peace Prize. There are reports that he will consider forging various economic ties, including tourism investment, if he meets Kim Jong-un.
I wonder if the principle of “a unified Korean Peninsula that is free and at peace,” agreed upon and announced by former President Biden with the leaders of South Korea and Japan at Camp David on August 18, 2023, truly exists in Trump’s mind.
While his inner workings remain unknown, Trump, eagerly anticipating a meeting with Kim Jong-un, is steeped in the ‘two Koreas on the Korean Peninsula’ policy. He treats and approaches North Korea as a separate nation from South Korea. South Korea is not a constant in Trump's North Korea policy. It's only through his benevolent grace that we occasionally have the opportunity to express our opinions.
Second, Trump makes the dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear program virtually impossible. North Korea's nuclear program cannot be left out of Trump's meeting with Kim Jong-un. It will inevitably be ‘nuclear disarmament negotiations’ based on the recognition of North Korea as a nuclear weapons state, which Kim Jong-un expects and demands.
The reason Kim Jong-un didn’t accept Trump's outstretched hand is because this isn’t guaranteed. Therefore, if Kim Jong-un meets with Trump, that alone means the nuclear dialogue is already proceeding according to Kim’s intentions. He is not the kind of person who would stand as a mere prop in Trump’s political ‘show.’
Even if Trump and Kim Jong-un reach an agreement in principle and do not use the term ‘disarmament negotiations’ in future working-level US-North Korea talks, North Korea will likely insist on it.
If Trump and Kim Jong-un reach a basic agreement, then even if the term ‘disarmament negotiation’ isn’t officially used in the subsequent working-level U.S.–North Korea negotiations, North Korea will certainly claim that’s what they are. The negotiations will likely involve a partial freeze on North Korea's nuclear program and the easing of sanctions. Given Kim Jong-un’s insistence on the complete lifting of sanctions against North Korea, the removal of key sanctions is highly likely.
Naturally, Kim Jong-un would not agree to a detailed roadmap covering the entire process from the current stage to the complete dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear program. Kim Jong-un has openly declared that nuclear dismantlement is ‘unconstitutional’ and violates the Constitution of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
Under normal circumstances, with three years remaining in his term and a loss in the midterm elections next November likely to result in a lame duck presidency, would the grand and ambitious long-term strategy of North Korea’s denuclearization truly resonate with Trump? As seen in the peace negotiations in the Middle East and Europe, isn’t Trump’s mind likely preoccupied solely with calculating political gains — even if the results are only temporary or short-term?
In the end, whether he intends to or not, Trump is bolstering President Lee Jae-myung’s position. Lee and his administration have argued that the South and the North are, in effect, two separate states and that this reality must be accepted, that North Korea is already a nuclear-armed state capable of striking the U.S. mainland, and that before it produces even more nuclear weapons, the pace of its buildup must somehow be curbed. Trump now appears to be putting into practice — ahead of them — the very approach they have been advocating.
Even though Trump’s maneuvers are independent of Lee Jae-myung and his government, Lee Jae-myung and his government’s North Korea policy could gain momentum and be pushed forward thanks to Trump. This could bring a sense of elation to Kim Jong-un.
For South Korea, which must strive for unification and denuclearization of North Korea, Trump’s maneuvers are negative. However, for Lee Jae-myung and his government, who long for coexistence, not unification, and for recognition and dialogue regarding North Korea’s nuclear program, under the guise of peace, Trump could be a blessing.
Furthermore, Trump’s unilateral economic demands and pressure to change the role of US forces in South Korea in security matters are bolstering the independent path advocated by those who adhered to ‘Juche ideology.’
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